We all wish we could predict the future. This is the time of year where many of us are thinking about the 12 months that stretch before us and setting goals. It’s also the time when it’s natural to feel nervous about the uncertainty that a brand-new year brings. While true clairvoyance might be beyond our reach, there are practical steps we can take to improve our foresight and make better decisions, whether planning for a new year or at any other time. By leveraging data, anticipating potential outcomes, and staying vigilant about our cognitive biases, we can learn to navigate uncertainty.

The Power of Data

In our world today, data is our crystal ball. It provides objective insights that can illuminate our path forward. Whether it’s monitoring market conditions for business decisions, or tracking our own health, data gives us a fact-based foundation for making projections and planning. For someone living with a chronic illness, regular monitoring of key health indicators is essential. This might include tracking blood sugar levels for a person with diabetes or keeping tabs on lung function for someone with COPD. By collecting and analyzing this data, you can identify patterns and spot early warning signs, enabling proactive interventions to prevent crises and maintain overall wellness.

Of course, data alone isn’t enough. You need to know how to interpret it effectively. Look for patterns and anomalies, consider historical context, and be cautious about overconfidence in precise predictions. Data offers a guide, not a guarantee.

Anticipating Outcomes

Even with data, the future remains unpredictable. But we can still be proactive. Anticipation is the key. Ask yourself: What could happen? What might go wrong? What opportunities might arise? This kind of scenario thinking exercises your foresight muscles and helps you prepare for a range of possibilities.

Of course, anticipation requires humility. We can’t predict everything perfectly. Be willing to revise your assumptions as new information emerges. The goal is adaptability not infallibility.

Cognitive Biases: The Invisible Obstacles

Our minds are remarkably good at making sense of the world. But they’re also prone to certain biases that can skew our judgement. Overconfidence bias, for example, is the tendency to be overly confident in our own abilities and judgements. Anchoring bias involves getting fixated on initial pieces of information (the “anchor”) and struggling to adjust our thinking when new data emerges. Confirmation bias is when we seek out information that confirms our existing beliefs, while ignoring evidence that challenges them.

To counteract these biases, cultivate a mindset of curiosity and openness. Question your assumptions, seek diverse perspectives, and be willing to admit when you’re wrong. It’s also helpful to build checks and balances into your decision-making processes, like having a trusted colleague review your work or using data to challenge your intuition.

Improving our clairvoyance isn’t about having supernatural abilities, it’s about upgrading our natural ones. Here are 5 steps you can take to become a bit more “clairvoyant” with your decision making:

1. Leverage Data: Use facts and figures to inform your projections and plans. For health-related decision making, regularly track key health indicators to gain insights and identify trends.
2. Anticipate Outcomes: Ask yourself proactive scenario questions to prepare for a range of possibilities. Regularly ask yourself: What could happen? What might go wrong? What opportunities might arise?
3. Check Your Biases: Recognize your own cognitive distortions and take steps to counteract them.
4. Seek Diverse Input: Look for insights from different perspectives and expertise.
5. Be Proactive: Don’t just react to problems, anticipate and address issues before they become crises. Particularly when dealing with chronic health issues, don’t put off dealing with anything that comes up.

Let’s look at how Sam, who lives with type 1 diabetes, uses these 5 practices in his daily life:

• Leveraging Data: Every day, Sam carefully logs his blood glucose levels, insulin doses, and physical activity. This data gives him a clear picture of his current health status and helps him identify patterns and potential issues.
• Anticipating Outcomes: Using his data, Sam regularly asks himself: What could my blood sugar levels be like tomorrow? What if I eat this meal? What might happen if I skip my work out?  What if my energy levels are low but I have important plans? This kind of anticipatory thinking helps Sam to prepare proactive strategies for various situations.
• Checking Biases: Sam is mindful of his own tendencies towards overconfidence and anchoring. He knows he might be too optimistic about his self-care and needs to be diligent about following his treatment plan.
• Seeking Diverse Input: While Sam relies on his data-driven approach, he also recognizes the importance of human connection. He regularly consults with his diabetes care team, including an endocrinologist, nurse, and dietitian, who provide additional expertise and support.
• Being Proactive: Sam knows that to live with his diabetes and stay as healthy as possible, he needs to stay on top of any unusual symptoms and not ignore any problems that may arise. For example, if his data indicates that his blood sugar is creeping up, he knows to adjust his insulin dosage or diet before it becomes a problem. This proactive approach helps him maintain better control of his condition and enjoy a higher quality of life.

Follow these 5 practices consistently, and you’ll find your decision making becomes less about guesswork and more about informed foresight. Remember to stay humble and flexible: Acknowledge the limits of your foresight and be willing to adjust your thinking. While we may not have true clairvoyance, the tools and practices briefly outlined here offer a powerful way to enhance our foresight and decision-making. You might not be able to see the future with perfect clarity, but you’ll be much better equipped to navigate it with confidence and grace. Here’s wishing you a strong decision-making year!

Photo by Arthur Ogleznev on Unsplash